U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are said to schedule a meeting soon in Saudi Arabia before the end of this month or sometime in March. Many worry about what deals could be made between these leaders, and what resolution might be struck concerning the Russia-Ukraine War. The U.S. and Russia have made it clear that Ukraine will not be included at the meeting, nor will European powers. This meeting will be the first face-to-face encounter since 2021 when Putin met with former president Joe Biden in Geneva.

What do they hope to achieve?

Ultimately, this proposed meeting is a regular diplomatic appointment intended to strengthen the countries’ bilateral ties. ‘Bilateral ties’ refers to the mutual recognition of sovereignty between states so they may engage in dialogue and cooperation. The same was stated by the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. President Trump is especially eager to discuss the decrease of oil prices.

There are only minimal comments made regarding plausible discussions on the Russia-Ukraine War. Tammy Bruce, spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of State, told AP News that recent and forthcoming conversations are intended to scope how serious Russia is to proactively pursue peace.

Who and what is feared?

A popular French news site – France24 – has put forward a predisposed analysis of this looming appointment. They say that many European political figures consider this arrangement eerily similar to the Munich Agreement of 1933, when European powers seceded the Sudetenland to Nazi Germany without the consent of those directly involved. They hold that the refusal to include Ukrainian President Zelensky may very likely lead to an unfair deal.

The news organization interviewed political scientist Anton Shekhovstor and he said that he believes Russia is not serious about ending the conflict in Ukraine. As for President Trump’s stance, many are alarmed by his statement that Ukraine “could have made a deal” at the beginning.

A plethora of European leaders have put their foot down, insisting on having a word in discussions to end the war in Ukraine. After a meeting at the Elysee Palace later this week, leaders from Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, NATO and the EU gathered but were unsuccessful in reaching a common belief regarding whether peacekeeping troops should be sent to remedy the conflict.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, stated that it is essential that a trans-Atlantic bond be established. Comparatively, U.S. General Keith Kellog acting as the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia said that it wouldn’t “be reasonable or feasible to have everybody sitting at the table.”

What meetings have already occurred?

The U.S. Embassy and Consulates in Russia have reported that the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, where they were joined by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Ambassador Steve Witkoff. This meeting was the preliminary stage of reestablishing bilateral ties, as Rubio commented that this was merely the beginning and there is still much left to be done.

During this preliminary meeting, the two entities reached the following points of agreement: the need to establish a consultation mechanism intended to address this bilateral relationship, the need to appoint respective teams to initiate the trajectory toward ending the war in Ukraine, the need to layout the groundwork for future mutual geopolitical interests and potential economic investment opportunities that may arise from the conclusion of the war (this list is quoted from the U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Russia, source hyper-link below).

What has the US-Russia relationship looked like over time?

Since 2014, the U.S. has had a distanced relationship with Russia (similarly most of Europe has as well). During that year, Russia illegally annexed Crimea meaning the country took this region of Ukraine and made it a part of Russian territory. Europe and the US responded by imposing sanctions on Russia. These sanctions were established by the G-7 commitment to address the following actions: aggressive action in Ukraine, the occupation of Crimea, malicious cyber activities, and using banned weapon-grade chemical substances against Russian nationals (as listed by the U.S. State Department).

Recently, the G-7 commitment is targeting Russian revenue from energy by blocking major Russian oil producers with sanctions. These sanctions focus on oil-carrying vessels, shady traders of Russian oil, Russian-based oilfield service providers and Russian energy officials. These sanctions have been authorized by Executive Order 14024.

Are European powers reading too much into Trump’s meeting with Putin? Could it genuinely be a routine diplomatic appointment considering the beginning of a “new” U.S. administration? Should Ukraine be allowed to have a say if a resolution is negotiated? Has Trump flipped his rhetoric toward Ukraine? That is for you to decide.

RESEARCH

Reuters

AP News

U.S. Department of Treasury

Euronews

France24

U.S. State Department