Katelyn is a student at Howard Payne University, studying public policy in the Guy D. Newman Honors Academy with a secondary major in global studies. She aspires to inform readers of major legislative, political and humanitarian activity in laymen terms, in order to supply the general public with an unbiased analysis that allows them to cultivate opinions by their own free will.
In 2024, Mexico elected a new president and their first female leader, Claudia Sheinbaum. Later on January 6th, Justin Trudeau resigned as Canada’s Prime Minister. The current agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico will be up for negotiations in 2026. With the new year underway and significant changes happening with these diplomatic neighbors, there is much to consider moving forward.
Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum is an environmental scientist, having earned her PhD in energy engineering from Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory in California. She has served as the former mayor of Mexico City and played a role in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Now, Sheinbaum is the 66th president of Mexico.
Sheinbaum has come to replace former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known to many as AMLO. Many sources allege that Sheinbaum now reigns as AMLO’s political protégé as many of her initiatives mirror those of her predecessor. Sheinbaum’s main focus currently addresses energy transition and vast judicial reform – the latter having been initiated by AMLO during his term.
As Sheinbaum promotes “continuity with change”, she has begun to pursue judicial reform in light of making constitutional amendments absolute in court rooms and mandating that all judges be elected instead of appointed. Sheinbaum is also eager to address national security by increasing Mexico’s National Guard and developing the armed forces into a central piece of government.
Regarding her agenda toward energy transition, Sheinbaum has publicized her environmental platform in support of developing electric-powered public transit and renewable energy production via wind, solar and hydropower.
AMLO Influence Still Present
Many reporters and critiques have noted that there are a lot of similarities between Sheinbaum and AMLO’s administrations. For example, Sheinbaum has included in her cabinet the finance minister, public security minister and both the former and current foreign affairs ministers – all of whom served with AMLO. This has led many to assume that Sheinbaum’s agenda is largely influenced by her predecessor.
Additionally, Sheinbaum has entered office with a growing budget deficit that was left behind by large government spending on social programs. Even so, she has voiced continual support of AMLO’s “Fourth Transformation” economic strategy aimed at redistribution and the increase of government participation in the economy.
Considering all of this, the US has much to consider moving into a new presidential term.
U.S.-Mexico Relations
As it currently stands, the average per capita income growth in Mexico has ranked among one of the weakest in all of Latin America for nearly a decade. During his term, AMLO managed to run the largest fiscal deficit that the country has seen in over 30 years. His plan for redistribution, the “Fourth Transformation”, included an increase in social spending and the minimum wage. Because of this, pension benefits in Mexico were raised by two percentage points of the GDP and minimum wage was raised by 90%. How was this done? How is the income growth in Mexico still one of the worst despite redistribution efforts?
AMLO’s funding method for redistribution involved cutting the majority of spending for both health and education in Mexico. As a result of this climactic economical change, experts project that Mexico will see a recession this year. The US must consider the economical state of Mexico that Sheinbaum has inherited, in addition to her agenda that is running parallel to AMLO’s.
Another pressing issue that the U.S. ought to consider is their trade history with Mexico. Presently, Mexico is competing with China as the largest trading partner with the U.S. In 2024, China was replaced as the top source of imported goods to the U.S. The difference amounts to $50 billion in goods. With a new president who has odd initiatives and is weighed down by Mexico’s economic strains, there is no guarantee that this relationship will remain the same come January 20th.
Canada
As for the other North American neighbor, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Canada’s Prime Minister on January 6th, 2025. Angus Reid Institute had reported in December that 46% of the Canadian public believed Trudeau needed to resign; and they further reported that his approval ratings had dropping to 22%.
Trudeau had served in office since 2015 as the Liberal Party leader in Canada’s parliamentarian government. Since his resignation, parliament has become prorogued. The prorogation of parliament means that the current parliament session has ended, rendering all parliament committees unable to meet. This also means that all legislation that had been in process will need to be reintroduced once the next session begins.
The Liberal Party has the ability to replace Trudeau until the next federal general election in October. The party has until March to make their decision. Though there has yet to be a clear successor there are many prominent choices including the transport minister, Anita Anand.
During this awkward gap, the Conservative Party is trying to push for a no-confidence vote that would issue a quicker general election. In order to accomplish this feat, the party will need to garner the majority of the 338-seated House of Commons. The leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has served since 2022 and currently stands as a candidate in the upcoming election.
U.S.-Canada Relations
As with Mexico, there is a great need to observe how these new changes in government power will affect long-standing diplomacy. Concerns facing U.S.-Canada relations in particular are as follows:
Trump and Trudeau currently have a pledge regarding the increase of border security. A 25% tariff has been put forward on Canadian exports if this initiative does not pull through. The two nations have been known to conduct intelligence sharing, co-investing and co-developing of their mutual interests. Both countries have united in their support of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. They have also united in support of U.S. navigation patrols in the South China sea. Their collective international objectives are widely known throughout NORAD and NATO.
A statement made by the government of Canada reads “Our mutual objectives of strengthening continental defense and safeguarding global peace and security have led to the close cooperation of our respective defense and national security agencies.” The same was said in a Congressional Research Service report listed in the research segment at the end of this article.
Though the relationship between Canada and the US has since been peaceful and positive, there is no definite reassurance that the new Canadian Prime Minister will share the same ambition to remain diplomatically united in cooperation.
All in all, it is important to adjust and reassess diplomatic ties as new leaders emerge. This concept is especially important for these three entities as their joint agreement “USMCA”, which replaced NAFTA, will be up for renegotiation in 2026.
Should the U.S. and Canada negotiate without Mexico given Sheinbaum’s new focus? Should the U.S. continue to pursue close ties with Mexico? Should the U.S. continue to pursue intense cooperation in confronting drug trafficking and cartel activity? That is for you to decide.
RESEARCH:
NPR
Wilson Center
Americas Quarterly
Texas Public Policy Foundation
Peterson Institute
Wilson Center
BBC
Angus Reid
Axios
CPA
Center Forward
Government of Canada