Certain regions in Mexico have lost up to 40% of their pecan harvests to a condition that causes nuts to germinate prematurely on trees. The disorder, known as vivipary, renders pecans inedible and unsellable. It has started to pop up in pecan orchards in Arizona and Texas, bringing worries to producers in the United States.

New Mexico State University is leading a group of scientists working to develop genetic tools and resources to breed climate-adapted pecan trees that could combat vivipary and other challenges.

The effort is part of a multistate research project headed by Jennifer Randall, a plant molecular biologist and plant pathologist in NMSU’s Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology and Weed Science in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences. Randall recently received a continual grant from the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, to fund the project for the next four years, starting with $3.9 million for the first two years.

Pecan has a native region that spans from Oaxaca, Mexico, to Illinois, which is a huge geographical range with many different climates. Our goal is to have trees that are best-suited for their regional areas and figure out not just what would be great to grow in specific areas today, but 50 years from now under climate change.

As project director, Randall will coordinate a research team that includes faculty from NMSU, Texas A&M University, the University of Arizona, the University of Georgia, the University of Oklahoma and the University of California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources. The group also includes USDA scientists in Texas, Georgia and Louisiana.

The researchers’ top objective is to leverage pecan genetics to breed pecan trees for climate adaptation. The group will work with the Alabama-based HudsonAlpha Institute for Biotechnology to sequence genomes from pecan DNA to analyze climate-cultivar “genetic mismatches” that cause vivipary, maladaptive budbreak timing and dormant-season hardiness.

We will generate molecular markers that predict suites of adaptive traits to accelerate breeding for both scion- and rootstock-related traits. These data will allow the development of vital genetic tools necessary for increasing our understanding of regional adaptation, promoting resource conservation, and selecting improved cultivars/rootstocks for all major pecan regions.

The researchers will also examine pecan water relations and responses to salinity and drought stress and explore biological interactions, including beneficial microbiome interactions and diseases caused by fungal and bacterial organisms and insect damage.

Randall said the group has set up research plots in New Mexico, Arizona, California, Texas, Oklahoma and other areas to gather data from different climate regions.

“Part of the strength of this grant is that we’re trying to look at pecan trees in a lot of different pecan regions, not just New Mexico,” she said. “We will help our New Mexico growers, but the main goal is to help pecan growers across the United States.”

It can take up to 30 years for new pecan varieties to become publicly available. The goal is to speed up the process using marker-assisted selection for breeding.

What we’re doing is figuring out the genetics that control traits, so we can reduce the amount of work and time. We’ll be able to track the genes in the new progeny without having to wait 20 or 30 years.

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HOW MUCH WILL HAY COST NEXT YEAR?

According to Hay & Forage Grower

At this time last year, the average price for alfalfa hay (all qualities) had broken through the $200 per ton barrier; in fact; that occurred in mid-2021. It was easy to wonder how much higher hay prices could actually go without buyer resistance.

As it turned out, hay prices could go much higher. From January 2022 to October 2022, the average alfalfa hay price moved from $211 per ton to $281. The previously record-high average price of $227 per ton set in May 2014 was obliterated. Some Supreme and Premium quality hay was selling for over $400 per ton for most of the year.

So, what will shape hay markets in 2023, and is there still room for upward price movement?

Just as weather played an important role in hay markets during 2022, the same will be true in 2023. Drought or excessive water will surely play a role in some regions, as will water availability in the West. Although weather can’t be predicted long-term, we can check in on those factors that we do know and evaluate how they might impact hay prices in the coming year.

December stocks:

In their October Crop Production report, USDA forecasted alfalfa and grass hay acres to be up in 2022 compared to 2021; however, both yields and total production are expected to be lower, especially for hay acres other than alfalfa.

In 2022, as in most years, there was a wide range of conditions across the United States. Severe drought conditions shifted from the Northern Plains in 2021 to the Southern Plains and western Midwest states in 2022. This significantly impacted hay production in those regions. In both situations, there was a lot of cattle sell-off and hay feeding began earlier than normal.

Irrigation water, or lack thereof, limited hay production in some parts of the West and strategies continue to be developed for Western growers to get the most hay production from limited water supplies. In some cases, water was cut off in 2022.

East of the Mississippi River, there were both dry and wet periods throughout the growing season, but hay production was mostly adequate to meet livestock needs. Haylage inventories in the dairy regions of the Midwest and Northeast also appear to be good.

Acres:

Mostly because of drought, some huge alfalfa production declines are estimated for the Southern Plains and some Midwestern states. Missouri is expected to be down 40% while Colorado’s shortfall is predicted at 36%. Texas is off 26%, and Nebraska, Oklahoma, Nevada, and Kansas are expected to have lower alfalfa stocks going into 2023.

The situation is more dire for grass hay. Total U.S. production is expected to drop by 11%. Texas grass hay production is projected to fall over 45% from 2021 while Oklahoma is down 33%.

USDA’s Annual Crop Production report on January 12 will offer a final number on harvested hay acres as well as production. We’ll also need to watch planting intentions for next spring.

Exports:

Hay exports comprise an important component of Western hay markets. Export sales help to set market prices, competing with domestic end users. About 20% of the alfalfa hay produced in the Western coastal states leaves the U.S. That percentage may be on the rise as dairies in states such as California feed less alfalfa. A much higher percentage of grass hay produced in the West is exported.

Through October, China had imported about 1.4 MT of U.S. alfalfa, or 58% of the U.S. export total to all countries. Compared to 2021, alfalfa hay exports to China were up about 7%. Nearly all of this high-quality alfalfa goes to support China’s growing dairy industry.

For hay other than alfalfa, U.S. exports were down about 11% through October. Japan is the leading importer of U.S. grass hay, purchasing 615,335 MT during that time frame. Its import total was down 11% from 2021.

Dairy:

The outlook for strong milk prices in 2022 came to fruition and, for some price metrics, hit all-time highs. For 2023, the outlook is still favorable for dairy farm profits, but not at the pay prices seen in 2022.

From January through November, the nation’s dairy herd grew by 62,000 milking cows while demand has stayed strong and dairy export totals continue to top previous records. Year-over-year milk production has risen in each of the past five months.

A chunk of the extra dairy income realized in 2022 has been offset by higher feed and other input costs. Dairy is a major hay customer, and many dairies purchase all of their baled hay inventory.

Beef:

The U.S. beef cow herd checked in at 30.4 million on July 1, 2022, which was 750,000 head (2%) fewer than one year earlier. That decline no doubt escalated as drought conditions in the Southern Plains and West persisted through most of the summer. Both beef cow and heifer slaughter numbers are higher than one year ago.

Similar to dairy, market analysts are bullish on beef prices going into 2023 and beyond. However, a smaller beef herd also means fewer cows and calves consuming hay.

Grains:

Corn and soybeans prices remain at historically high levels, along with other related by-product feeds. This makes both energy and protein a more expensive feed ingredient and allows hay to compete favorably as a ration ingredient. Higher grain prices, if they hold, may continue to drive some existing hay acreage into other commodity crops. There are some indications that grain prices may begin to moderate or decline.

Crop inputs:

Overall, production inputs will look to remain high in 2023. For haymakers, that means higher costs for chemicals and fertilizers. Recently, fuel prices have come down, but it remains to be seen if that trend holds. Forage producers will have to demand higher prices simply to cover their cost of production, but hay buyers have already danced to that song in 2022, so the shock factor may not be as bad.

What does it all mean?

Many of the same factors that influenced hay prices in 2022 will still be in the game during 2023.

A case for steady to stronger hay prices in 2023 can be found in shrinking acres and production, relatively high beef and milk prices, a growing dairy herd, a healthy hay export market, high input costs, a lack of water availability in the West, strong grain prices, and an ever-present horse population. Offsetting these positive factors are a smaller number of beef cows (lower demand) and, in some cases, lower profit margins in the livestock sector from higher input costs.

One question remains to be answered: At what point do hay prices become so high that demand falls and less expensive alternatives are sought?